Geography 150

1. Open gapminder.org ( a new window will open). Keep both windows open and use alt-tab to switch browser windows.
2. Click on GAPMINDER WORLD link on the left navigation bar.
3. You probably should click on the "Watch a video tutorial" to get yourself up to speed. It's only a couple of minutes long, but a bit memory intensive. There's a .pdf tutorial as well.
4. Take a look the graph that displays automatically.
5. Note that this graph is an X-Y graph. On the X or horizontal axis Income per Person (fixed PPP) revised.
• Please note that this statistic is really Gross Domestic Product per capita. It's an average and as such may hide wealth disparities in a country where wealth is not very evenly distributed.
6. On the Y or vertical axis is Life expectancy at birth. This indicator is a prediction of how long a baby born in that year could expect to live on average given current trends in that country.
7. The first thing you should analyze is the relationship between these two variables.
• This reveals a positive correlation between the two indicators.
• In other words, as average income goes up, so does average life expectancy.
• By the same token, as life expectancy goes higher so does the income per person.
• We can reasonably guess that higher income increases average life expectancy, but we can not be sure higher income causes people to live longer..
• **CORRELATION DOES NOT INDICATE CAUSATION**
• Spurious relationships may exist. For example bikini sales and ice cream sales may be highly correlated, but you could not prove that those who buy bikinis are also buying ice cream (it may indeed be the opposite).
8. Also note that income is on a "log" or logarithmic scale. It actually hides some of the difference in income between the rich and the poor countries of the world.
• It is useful to place skewed data, like income on a log scale, because some countries are so much richer than others, it's hard to get all countries on the same page.
• A log scale also makes the pile of poor countries (or average countries) easier to distinguish from one another.
9. Find the word "log" on the horizontal axis. Click on the down arrow to the right and select "lin" to change the scale of this axis to a standard linear format.
10. Note the change in scale on the bottom and the manner in which the neat diagonal linear relationship between the variables appears to change to a kind of upside down j curve.
11. Consult the chart and answer the following questions:
    1. What is the wealthiest country in the world? Answer 1:
    2. What does this country have that makes it so rich? Answer 2:
    3. What country is the poorest? Answer 3:
    4. Where are most of the poorest of the poor countries located? Answer 4:
    5. There is one light blue dot on the map that is down among the darker blue dots. What is the name of this South Asian country that ranks among the very lowest for life expectancy? Answer 5:
    6. Why does this country rank so poorly? Answer to question 6: Disease Famine Natural Disaster War
12. Return the X axis to a log scale.
13. Change the variable on the X axis to "Life Expectancy at Birth" so both axis are using the same variable.
14. The points should line up in a perfectly diagonal line. The relationship between these two variables, because they are exactly the same, is now a perfectly positive relationship (r= 1.00).
15. Return the graph to the same X variable (income) that you had before.
16. Answer the following questions by finding the answers on the graph.
    7. Find the huge red dot. What country does that represent? Answer 7:
    8. What was the life expectancy in China in 2007? Answer 8:
    9. What was the per person income in China in 2007? Answer 9:
    10. What was the total population in China in 2007? Answer 10:
17. Find the United States and answer the same questions
    11. What was the life expectancy in United States in 2007? Answer 11:
    12. What was the per person income in the United States in 2007? Answer 12:
    13. What was the total population in United States in 2007? Answer 13:

Now that you've demonstrated that you can interpret the basic components of this graph, let's animate it, so we can examine the relationship between these two variables over time.

18. Find the dots the representing the United States, Japan, Germany and Russia. Click on the dots, or select them from the list of countries in the "Select Box".
• These four countries have ranked among the most powerful and most developed in the world for many years, so we know a good bit about their histories and have relatively good data about their wealth and health since 1900.
19. You may want to move the resize the dots to make them smaller. Find the "Size" half-bubble in the lower right portion of the screen and click on the little triangle and drag it to the left to make the dots smaller. Don't make them too small, because some trends are harder to spot if you reduce the dots to lines.
20. Make sure the "Trails" option has a checkmark in it.
21. Click the "Play" button in the lower left corner and watch what happens.
• If it goes too fast, you can reduce the speed of the animation by sliding downward the speed control arrow, which is just to the right of the play button.
• You can also move the year indicator back and forward.
22. Be prepared to click on the "Stop" button, which replaces the "Play" button everytime you start the animation.
23. Stop the animation before you get to 1820 and answer the following questions.
    14. What does the "Caveat" note in a red box at the top of the screen?
        Fill in the blank "highly uncertain ________ before 1900". Answer 14:
    15. About how old can children born in 1820 expect to live on average in the United States? Answer 15:
    16. About how old can children born in 1820 expect to live on average in the Russia? Answer 16:
    17. About how old can children born in 1820 expect to live on average in the Japan? Answer 17:
    18. Of these four countries, which is the wealthiest in 1820 (on average)? Answer 18: Germany Japan Russia United States
24. Click play and let the animation run until about 1860.
• Note that around 1850, the dots for Germany and the United States begin to move to the right more rapidly, but not upwardly much.
19. What is beginning to happen during the 1850s-1860s in Germany and the United States? Answer 19:
• The phenomena that begins around the 1850s has a profound effect on a number of things, one of which begins to happen around 1880 and becomes visible on the graph.
19. What begins to happen around 1880 and is an indirect result of what began about 30 years earlier? Answer 20
• Note that it begins a tiny bit earlier in Japan, but the change is not so rapid. In Russia happens a bit later, but goes up more quickly after an initial dip.
25. Let the animation run until about 1915 and stop it again.
    20. Which two countries have profound changes in their life expectancies? Answer 21: Japan and Germany Russia and Germany The US and Japan Russian and Japan
    21. Why? What happens to the populations in those two countries in those years? Answer 22:
        • One thing you may not be able to guess is that quite a few of the deaths during that period come from a massive worldwide outbreak of the Spanish Flu, a pandemic that killed more people than the tragedy that more commonly occupies almost all history classes dedicated to this decade.
26. Press play and then stop again in 1932. Note what happens to the income in the United States and Germany? Here making the dots smaller helps.
    22. What do we call the economic era of the 1930s? Answer 23:
    23. Why does Russia's life expectancy fall rapidly in the early 1920s and again in the 1930s? Answer 24: Civil War - 1920s Famine -1930s Political Violence -1930s All of these
27. Let the animation run through 1945.
    24. What happens to Japan's line? Why? Answer 25:
    25. After 1945, what happens to Japan's income line? Answer 25b:
28. Let the animation run and examine Japan's life expectancy line. compare it to the United States.
29. You may want to change the X axis to Time, in order to see the Life Expectancy pattern more clearly.
    26. About what year can Japanese children begin to expect to live longer than American Children? Answer 26:
    27. Find Russia's life expectancy line. Note that it goes down in 1990s? Why? Answer 27: War Famine End of communism Disease outbreak

Now let's take a look at the pattern for some less economically developed countries.

30. Click on deselect all to get rid of the trails and information associated with Germany, Japan, etc.
31. Return the X axis to Income per Person.
32. Now select the United States (for reference), India, Kenya, Mexico, Saudi Arabia and South Korea.
33. Run the animation and note what happens.
    28. What happens to the life expectancies of Indians and Kenyan during the late 1800s? Answer 28: they go down they go up they are unchanged
    29. After what major world-wide event do almost all of the developing countries' life expectancies begin to rise very rapidly?
        Answer 29: the Industrial Revolution the end of World War II the end of World War I the end of the Cold War
    30. Note Kenya's life expectancy drops in the 1990s? Why? Answer 30: Famine Civil War Disease - Aids Massive Floods All of these
34. One country on the chart jumps past the United States in terms of income for a while in the early 1970s.
    31. What country is this? Answer 31:
    32. What made that country so rich? Answer 32:
    33. What was going on at that time that made them richer than the United States? Answer 33: World War II Arab Oil Embargo Huge hurricane wiped out US oil The found oil there for the first time
    34. What has happened since to that country's per person income? Answer 34: It has continued to rise It has fallen for the most part It has remained unchanged
    35. Which country was poorer than Kenya in 1945, but now ranks only to the United States in income? Answer 35: India Mexico South Korea Saudi Arabia
        • The answer to the last question is important because that country seems to offer a model for other countries to follow their "miracle".
35. Change the Y axis to infant mortality rate.
    • Now you see an inverse or negative relationship. As income goes up, infant mortality rates go down.
36. What country, though considerably wealthy on average, still has a high infant mortality rate? Answer 36: India Mexico Saudi Arabia South Korea Kenya
37. What does that tell you about the distribution of wealth in that country? Answer 37: Nothing at all That wealth is not well distributed That wealth is evenly distributed
36. Now change the X axis to Children per women (total fertility rate).
    38. Complete the following sentence: As the infant mortality rate goes down, the number of Children per woman will go ________?
        Answer 38: Up Down Remain unchanged No relationship
37. Click the play button and pause/stop it immediately. Note that this data begins in 1950.
    39. What's going on in the United States at this time? Why is the total fertility of women going up?
        Answer 39: Good nutrition for the first time Miracle cure for childhood diseases The post war baby-boom Birth control outlawed for a short time.
    40. In 1960, which of the countries have the highest fertility rate? Answer 40: India Kenya Mexico Saudi Arabia South Korea
    41. In 1960, which of the countries has the highest infant mortality rate? Answer 41: India Kenya Mexico South Korea Saudi Arabia
    42. During the 1970s , which country had the least dramatic decline in fertility rate among the developing nations? Answer 42: India Kenya Mexico Saudi Arabia South Korea
    43. During the entire time span, which country has done the best job of decreasing its infant mortality rate? Answer 43: India Kenya Mexico Saudi Arabia South Korea
38. Now let's examine the relationship between total fertility rate and the female literacy rate.
39. Change the X axis to "Literacy rate, adult female". It's under the "Education Category"
40. Deselect all of your countries from the last set of graphs and manually advance the year to 1986. Only a few countries appear, so select those that are available, especially Egypt, Iran, Swaziland and Turkey.
41. Click play. Note the steep 45 degree angle at which the lines move.
    44. What does this clearly suggest? Write a sentence.
        Answer 44:
    45. Why do the fertitlity rates all seem to level off at around 2 (two) children per woman?
        Answer 45:

43. Now experiment with the graphs. Examine the possible variables. Test a few, examine the relationships. Play the animations.
44. Your task is to make a graph and send it to your instructor as a link. This segment is worth 50% of the assignment.
45. Find the link at the top right portion of the gapminder chart.
46. Click on it once.
47. Click on "Email this Chart"
48. This should launch your email program. Send it to your instructor along with a paragraph that discusses what is on the graph. The point of doing this is to allow you an opportunity to show your instructor that you have learned to effectively interpret data that is presented in a graphical format.
49. IF you cannot email the graph that you have created, then try this alternate method of sending your graphic.
    1. Launch a word processor like Microsoft Word
    2. Write a paragraph explaining the data and the relevance of the graphic that you have created.
    3. Then with your graphic displayed as you would like it in the browser window, press ctrl+alt+print screen to do a "screen capture" of the active window.
    4. Return to your document that you begun in your word process, place the cursor where you want your graphic, and then paste (Control+V).
    5. Your graphic should appear in your document.
    6. Save the file as "gapminder_lab_YOURNAME" and send it to your instructor as an email attachment. MAKE SURE YOUR NAME IS ON IT.

Name:

Instructor: Steve Graves

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